Application of Probability

Alisher Ashurov
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Investigating Theoretical Probability

Inspired by

  • Of having a pop quiz in Math?
  • Of getting “heads” when you flip a coin?
  • Of you winning the lottery?

What are the chances?

The Language of Probability

Probability is the study of chance and prediction.

Each test is known as a trial, which is also called an experiment.

For every trial, there is an outcome.

The list of all possible outcomes of a trial is called the sample space.

Possible Outcomes: 6

Sample Space: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

What number will you roll?

We can group these outcomes into events such as:

rolling an even number or rolling a number greater than 3.

Categories of Likelihood

Impossible

If no outcomes correspond to

the event

Can you think of one event per category?

Unlikely

If it happens less than half the time

Certain

If every outcome corresponds to the event

Likely

If the event happens more than half the time

Even Chance

If it happens exactly half

the time

Unlikely

Drawing an Ace

Certain

Drawing a card that is a Spade, Heart, Club, or Diamond

Likely

Drawing a card that is not 2

Even Chance

Drawing a black card

Impossible

Drawing a blue card

Considering a standard deck of cards, here are some events sorted into each category:

How likely...

We can also use numbers to represent the likelihood of an outcome.

Probability as a Number

Impossible

Even Chance

Certain

Unlikely

Likely

1

2

0.5

50%

3

10

0

0%

1

100%

20%

65%

0.85

The larger the number, the more likely it is. The smaller the number, the less likely it is.

To find the probability as a percentage, convert the fraction to a decimal and multiply by 100%.

Probability =

size of sample space

number of times an event can happen

We can use this equation to solve for the probability of an event

What is the likelihood of landing on blue?

Remember these terms:

  • likelihood
  • impossible
  • unlikely
  • even chance
  • likely
  • certain
  • probability
  • trial
  • outcome
  • sample space


Educational Resources

Review “Theoretical
Probability as a Likelihood”
and “Theoretical Probability
as a Number”

Questions or want to learn more?

Reach out!

Teacher Alisher Ashurov

alishershurov.us@gmail.co
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